AHRI Quarterly Update

What the Latest AHRI Work Outlook Really Means for Job Seekers, HR Leaders and Organisations Navigating Redundancies

By Sandy Hutchison, Founder & CEO, Career Money Life

The latest AHRI Quarterly Australian Work Outlook report gives us a sharp view of what’s unfolding across Australian workplaces: strong hiring intentions, rising redundancies, persistent recruitment challenges, and a workforce under pressure. It’s a rare moment where optimism and upheaval sit side by side.

This quarter’s insights reflect what we’re hearing from clients every day. People need clarity, confidence, and practical support to move through what has become a sustained period of change.

Here are the deeper themes that matter most for HR and job seekers.

Employment growth remains strong

The Net Employment Intentions Index holds at +48, matching its highest level since the survey began. More than 70 per cent of organisations plan to hire this quarter, with public sector demand continuing to surge.

This tells us the labour market is still active. Employers are confident. Opportunities exist. But the landscape is becoming more selective, and job readiness is becoming more important than ever.

Redundancies continue to rise

Almost one in three employers expect to implement redundancies this quarter, up significantly over the past six months. This is the second highest level of redundancy intention since AHRI began tracking the metric.

The sectors with the strongest hiring intentions also have the highest redundancy activity. This simultaneous creation and removal of roles is reshaping teams, structures and skills requirements.

It’s a powerful reminder: redundancy isn’t just about job loss, it’s often about role evolution. Many employees are being displaced and rehired in the same organisational cycle.

For HR, it means navigating both hope and hardship at the same time. For people, it means experiencing vulnerability at a moment when the market is actually open.

Stress is becoming a defining challenge for employers

Stress driven absence has risen dramatically, from 42 per cent in 2023 to 57 per cent in 2025. It’s now one of the top causes of unscheduled leave, sitting alongside home responsibilities and minor illnesses.

This is a clear indicator of change fatigue. The 5Rs effect Recruitment, Retention, Reskilling, Reorganisation and Redundancies is stretching people’s capacity.

Without clear communication, coaching and wellbeing support during change, this pressure shows up as absenteeism, disengagement and turnover.

Recruitment is rising but still difficult

Hiring intentions are climbing, yet 35 per cent of recruiting employers say they are struggling to find the talent they need. This tension between opportunity and scarcity has big implications.

For employers:

• Job design and capability expectations are shifting faster than supply
• Candidates with strong communication and digital literacy stand out
• Redeployment and reskilling programs are becoming critical tools

For job seekers:

• The market is active, but expectations are higher
• Preparation, clarity and confidence give a real edge
• Tools and structured guidance help candidates present strongly and tell their story well

AI is reshaping early career pathways

One of the most fascinating findings is that 41 per cent of employers are seeing an increase in entry level roles because of AI, while only 19 per cent report a decrease.

AI is transforming work, but not eliminating early career opportunities. Instead, it’s shifting the nature of entry level tasks and strengthening the need for higher order skills.

At the same time, 93 per cent of organisations report using AI somewhere in their operations, and three quarters are training staff in AI related skills.

For HR, this is a clear signal:

• AI literacy is now a core capability
• Transparent, well communicated AI adoption matters
• Human connection remains essential in hiring and performance

For candidates:

• AI is a tool, not a threat
• Those who use AI well will set themselves apart

Work intensity is increasing

Sixty per cent of employers believe AI is increasing work intensity for employees. Even with the promise of efficiency, many workers feel more stretched than ever.

This suggests AI’s benefits aren’t yet fully realised, and that without adequate training and support, AI can amplify workloads instead of easing them.

What this means for people facing redundancy

Redundancy is one of the most emotionally and practically challenging moments in a person’s career. This environment magnifies that experience.

Our work with thousands of participants through CareerHub shows that people thrive when they have:

• a clear roadmap
• practical tools to build momentum
• structured coaching to rebuild confidence
• wellbeing support to protect energy
• guidance on navigating AI influenced job markets

What this means for HR

This quarter’s report reinforces a truth many HR leaders already know:

HR is holding the organisation together during change.

HR teams are:

• redesigning roles
• managing redundancies
• supporting leaders
• hiring for new capability
• managing wellbeing risks
• navigating AI adoption
• protecting culture

The need for high quality, scalable support for both employees and HR has never been more important.

At Career Money Life, our CareerHub and Future Fit coaching programs provide a proven framework for supporting people through redundancy with dignity, direction and confidence. We help individuals move forward, and we help organisations manage change with care, clarity and trust.

If your organisation is navigating recruitment and redundancy cycles and you’d like a more human way to support your people, I’d love to talk.